Can Nifty 50 Hold the 100-Week EMA? Will Bank Nifty Reclaim the 5-Day EMA?
Nifty 50 Hold : The Indian stock market has been witnessing intense selling pressure, with the Nifty 50 struggling to hold its ground for the 10th consecutive trading session. Despite multiple attempts by the bulls, the index failed to sustain above the 22,000-22,040 zone, which coincides with the 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Meanwhile, Bank Nifty showed signs of recovery but remains at a crucial juncture as it attempts to reclaim its 5-day EMA at 48,400.
With both indices at critical support levels, the coming sessions will determine whether the market can find stability or if further downside is on the horizon. Experts suggest that the oversold conditions may lead to a short-term technical bounce, but sustained recovery remains uncertain amid global macroeconomic concerns.
Nifty 50: Can It Hold 22,000?
On March 4, 2025, the Nifty 50 closed at 22,083, shedding 37 points, extending its losing streak. Technical indicators paint a bearish picture, but extremely oversold conditions hint at a possible pullback.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 22,000, 21,800, 21,750
- Resistance: 22,260 (5-day EMA), 22,800
If Nifty closes below 22,000, we may see fresh selling pressure, dragging the index toward 21,900-21,800. However, sustaining above 22,000 could pave the way for a rebound toward 22,250-22,300.
Expert Views on Nifty 50:
🔹 Vinay Rajani (HDFC Securities)
- Nifty has closed in the red for 10 straight sessions.
- RSI is at 21, the lowest since March 2020.
- Market Trend: Still bearish; needs a close above 22,800 for trend reversal.
- Trading Strategy: Buy above 22,250, with a stop-loss at 22,000; target 22,700.
🔹 Preeti K Chabra (Trade Delta)
- Nifty is trading in a downward channel.
- Oversold RSI (21.7) indicates a potential bounce.
- Strategy: Deploy an Iron Butterfly options strategy at 22,100.
🔹 Ashish Kyal (Waves Strategy Advisors)
- The current decline is among the steepest since the Covid crash.
- A break below 21,960 could push Nifty to 21,800.
- Strategy: Short Nifty Futures below 21,960, stop-loss at 22,100, target 21,820-21,700.
Bank Nifty: Can It Reclaim 48,400?
The Bank Nifty closed at 48,245, up 131 points, signaling a minor recovery. However, the index remains below key resistance levels and must reclaim the 5-day EMA (48,400) to confirm a bullish reversal.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 47,800, 47,600
- Resistance: 48,400 (5-day EMA), 48,972
If Bank Nifty closes above 48,400, we could see a move toward 48,700-49,000. However, failure to hold above 47,800 could push it toward 46,600.
Expert Views on Bank Nifty:
🔹 Vinay Rajani (HDFC Securities)
- The primary trend remains bearish.
- Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 48,500, stop-loss at 47,800, target 49,500.
🔹 Preeti K Chabra (Trade Delta)
- RSI at 37.7 indicates a possible bounce.
- Strategy: Buy near 48,000, targeting 48,550, stop-loss at 47,840.
🔹 Ashish Kyal (Waves Strategy Advisors)
- Trend remains negative unless Bank Nifty closes above the previous day’s high.
- Strategy: Short Bank Nifty below 48,000, target 47,800-47,600, stop-loss at 48,200.
Market Overview and Financial Ratios
| Index | Closing Price (March 4, 2025) | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | RSI | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 22,083 | 22,000, 21,800 | 22,260, 22,800 | 21 | Bearish |
| Bank Nifty | 48,245 | 47,800, 47,600 | 48,400, 48,972 | 37.7 | Bearish |
What Lies Ahead?
- Nifty must hold 22,000 to prevent a deeper correction.
- Bank Nifty needs to reclaim 48,400 to signal a possible short-term recovery.
- Traders should watch key levels closely and use risk management strategies.
Final Thoughts
The Indian stock market remains under bear control, but extreme oversold conditions could lead to a short-term bounce. Whether Nifty 50 can hold its 100-week EMA and Bank Nifty can reclaim its 5-day EMA will dictate the market’s next move. Traders should exercise caution and align their strategies with key technical levels.
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Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.