Trade Setup for February 14: Top 15 Things to Know Before the Opening Bell

Trade Setup for February 14: The stock market continued its downward spiral for the seventh consecutive session, with bears dominating Dalal Street. A death crossover (where the 50-day EMA falls below the 200-day EMA) has further strengthened bearish sentiment. Experts believe that the market remains in a sell-on-rally mode, with critical support and resistance levels to watch in the coming sessions.

The Nifty 50 index closed at 23,031, failing to sustain its intraday rally. If the index decisively falls below 23,000, we might see further downside towards 22,800-22,600 levels. However, on the upside, 23,250-23,350 will act as an immediate hurdle zone.

As we approach the February 14 session, here are 15 key data points to help you plan your trades efficiently:

1. Key Levels for the Nifty 50 (23,031)

Resistance levels: 23,179, 23,237, 23,330
Support levels: 22,993, 22,936, 22,843

Technical Outlook

The Nifty 50 formed a bearish candlestick pattern with a long upper shadow on the daily charts, suggesting a lack of strength at higher levels.

The index is trading below all key moving averages (10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs).
Momentum indicators: RSI (40.17) remains in the lower band, while MACD is below the zero line with a negative crossover, signaling further weakness.
The Bollinger Bands show that the index is trading in the lower band, reinforcing the bearish trend.

2. Key Levels for the Bank Nifty (49,360)

Resistance levels: 49,705, 49,837, 50,051
Support levels: 49,277, 49,145, 48,931
Fibonacci Resistance: 50,378, 51,161
Fibonacci Support: 49,276, 47,876

Technical Outlook

The Bank Nifty also formed a bearish candlestick with a long upper wick, indicating selling pressure at higher levels.

The index is trading below all key moving averages, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
RSI remains in the lower band, and MACD is below the zero line.
A slight positive note is that the index is defending the midline of Bollinger Bands and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (of the recent rally from 47,844 to 50,642).

3. Nifty Call Options Data

Highest Call Open Interest (OI): 24,000 strike (80.88 lakh contracts) – strong resistance level
Next major resistance levels: 23,500 strike (42.7 lakh contracts) and 23,400 strike (38 lakh contracts)
Maximum Call writing:
- 24,000 strike (addition of 55.13 lakh contracts)
- 23,400 strike (29.55 lakh contracts)
- 23,200 strike (25.04 lakh contracts)

4. Nifty Put Options Data

Highest Put Open Interest (OI): 22,400 strike (33.53 lakh contracts) – strong support level
Next major support levels: 22,500 strike (32.28 lakh contracts) and 22,200 strike (30.98 lakh contracts)
Maximum Put writing:
- 22,400 strike (28.19 lakh contracts)
- 22,200 strike (21.01 lakh contracts)
- 22,300 strike (17.49 lakh contracts)

5. Bank Nifty Call Options Data

Highest Call OI: 51,000 strike (16.08 lakh contracts) – major resistance
Next resistance levels: 50,000 strike (13.37 lakh contracts), 50,500 strike (9.6 lakh contracts)
Maximum Call writing:
- 49,500 strike (1.56 lakh contracts)
- 49,700 strike (1.38 lakh contracts)
- 49,800 strike (1.26 lakh contracts)

6. Bank Nifty Put Options Data

Highest Put OI: 49,000 strike (12.88 lakh contracts) – strong support
Next support levels: 48,000 strike (11.56 lakh contracts), 50,000 strike (9.66 lakh contracts)
Maximum Put writing:
- 47,500 strike (72,480 contracts)
- 49,500 strike (42,270 contracts)
- 49,600 strike (30,360 contracts)

7. Funds Flow (Rs crore)

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs): Net outflow of ₹1,475 crore
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs): Net inflow of ₹1,320 crore

8. Put-Call Ratio (PCR)

Current Nifty PCR: 0.9 (increased from 0.75 in the previous session)
A rising PCR (>0.7) suggests more traders are selling puts, which can indicate a potential bounce.

9. India VIX (Volatility Index)

Current India VIX: 14.96 (+0.4%)
The rising VIX suggests increasing uncertainty, keeping bulls on edge.

10. Long Build-up (52 Stocks)

Stocks seeing an increase in open interest and price indicate bullish activity.

11. Long Unwinding (40 Stocks)

These stocks saw a drop in open interest and price, indicating profit booking.

12. Short Build-up (76 Stocks)

Stocks with rising open interest and falling prices show increasing bearish sentiment.

13. Short-Covering (62 Stocks)

Stocks that saw a drop in open interest with rising prices indicate short positions being closed.

14. High Delivery Trades

Stocks with high delivery percentage indicate investor accumulation rather than short-term trading.

15. Stocks Under F&O Ban

Stocks added: None
Stocks retained: Manappuram Finance
Stocks removed: None

Conclusion

The market remains in bearish control, with major indices trading below key moving averages. The Nifty needs to hold above 23,000 for any short-term recovery, while 22,800-22,600 remains a critical support zone. On the upside, the 23,250-23,350 range will act as an immediate hurdle.

Traders should watch the Put-Call Ratio (PCR), India VIX, and options data for further cues on market direction. With rising volatility and cautious sentiment, maintaining a risk-managed approach is crucial.

What are your market strategies for today? Let us know in the comments!

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Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.