Will Nifty Rebound Toward 23,500? Can Bank Nifty Climb Above 50,300?
Will Nifty Rebound? The Nifty 50 has been on a downward spiral for four consecutive sessions, facing strong selling pressure. However, recent technical levels indicate that a potential rebound could be on the horizon. The index found support around 23,300, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the midline of the Bollinger Bands. If a recovery happens, the key resistance zone lies between 23,450 and 23,500. On the downside, if the Nifty breaches 23,300, the next immediate support would be at 23,200.
Similarly, the Bank Nifty, which has been outperforming the broader market, faces key resistance at 50,300, followed by 50,600. On the downside, immediate support exists at 49,700, followed by 49,482. Experts suggest that maintaining strength above 50,000 will be crucial for the index to gain momentum in the coming sessions.
Market Performance Overview
On February 8, the Nifty 50 declined by 178 points (-0.76%) to close at 23,382, while the Bank Nifty ended at 49,981, shedding 178 points (-0.35%). The market breadth remained weak, with a total of 2,149 stocks declining against 471 advancing on the NSE.
The rising volatility index (India VIX) at 14.44 signals increased uncertainty. If the VIX moves toward 15.50-16, traders can expect sharp swings in the market.
Nifty Outlook and Trading Strategy
Jay Thakkar, ICICI Securities
The Nifty is struggling to reclaim 23,500, as aggressive call writing has been observed at the 23,400-23,500 strikes. This makes 23,500 a crucial resistance level in the near term. The highest open interest for calls is seen at 24,000, suggesting that a strong breakout above 23,800 is needed for a bullish move.
- Key Resistance: 23,600, 23,800
- Key Support: 23,100, 23,000
- Strategy:
- Sell Nifty futures near 23,600, with a stop-loss at 23,800, targeting 23,200-23,100.
Jigar S Patel, Anand Rathi
Despite recent declines, the Nifty has found support at the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting resilience. A bounce from this level could push the index toward 23,800 in the short term.
- Key Resistance: 23,600, 23,800
- Key Support: 23,200, 23,300
- Strategy:
- Buy Nifty futures near 23,400, with a stop-loss at 23,200, targeting 23,800.
Anshul Jain, Lakshmishree Investments
The Nifty rejected 23,600 on the weekly chart, but the selling pressure lacked high volume, indicating weak bearish momentum. If the index manages to reclaim 23,600, the next target would be 23,800.
- Key Resistance: 23,440, 23,560
- Key Support: 23,320, 23,230
- Strategy:
- Buy Nifty futures near 23,320, with a stop-loss at 23,250, targeting 23,440-23,560.
Bank Nifty – Outlook and Positioning
Jay Thakkar, ICICI Securities
The Bank Nifty has been relatively stronger than the Nifty, indicating potential upside. Despite closing below 50,000, strong put writing at 49,000-50,000 suggests support in this range.
- Key Resistance: 50,000, 51,000
- Key Support: 49,500, 49,000
- Strategy:
- Buy Bank Nifty futures near 49,500, with a stop-loss below 49,000, targeting 50,000-51,000.
Jigar S Patel, Anand Rathi
The Bank Nifty rebounded by 280 points intraday, finding support at 49,703. The immediate resistance is at 50,200, with selling pressure expected at higher levels.
- Key Resistance: 50,600
- Key Support: 49,500
- Strategy:
- Buy Bank Nifty futures near 50,000, with a stop-loss at 49,500, targeting 51,000.
Anshul Jain, Lakshmishree Investments
A hammer candle formation at 49,900-50,000 indicates a possible reversal. If the index crosses 50,300, a short-covering rally could take it to 50,700.
- Key Resistance: 50,300, 50,700
- Key Support: 49,700, 49,300
- Strategy:
- Go long above 50,050, targeting 50,300-50,700, with a stop-loss at 49,900.
Key Financial Ratios (Market Snapshot)
| Metric | Nifty 50 | Bank Nifty |
|---|---|---|
| Closing Price (Feb 8) | 23,382 | 49,981 |
| Day’s Loss (%) | -0.76% | -0.35% |
| India VIX | 14.44 | – |
| Put-Call Ratio (PCR) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| 50-Day VWAP | 23,500 | 49,617 |
| Resistance Levels | 23,500, 23,800 | 50,300, 50,700 |
| Support Levels | 23,200, 23,000 | 49,700, 49,000 |
Final Thoughts – Will Nifty and Bank Nifty Rebound?
The Nifty 50 remains in a consolidation phase, with 23,500 acting as a stiff resistance level. A decisive move above 23,800 would confirm a bullish breakout, while 23,000-23,100 remains strong support.
The Bank Nifty, on the other hand, appears more resilient. If it sustains above 50,000, an upside toward 50,700 is likely. However, a breakdown below 49,500 could accelerate selling pressure.
Traders should watch volume trends, India VIX movements, and key resistance levels to gauge market direction in the coming sessions.
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Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.